New Zealand has done something most countries have not: it has brought smoking down fast. As the country weighs its next steps, the global network We Are Innovation (WAI) says Sweden is the clearest guide to the finish line. The product that got Sweden there is one New Zealand has yet to regulate: the nicotine pouch.
New Zealand’s adult smoking rate now stands at 6.8%. Research published this year in The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific found the decline accelerated fivefold after vaping became a mainstream way out of cigarettes. Yet around 300,000 adults still smoke and have not switched to vaping.
Sweden has already crossed the line. The latest figures from the Swedish Council for Information on Alcohol and Other Drugs put daily smoking at 3.7%. That is well below the 5% threshold widely recognised as smokefree. WAI’s research on the Swedish experience points to three lessons for New Zealand.
Lesson one: tobacco control works best with a way out
Sweden did not relax on cigarettes. Like the rest of Europe, it taxes them, restricts their marketing and mandates health warnings. What set it apart was giving smokers alternatives that are accessible, acceptable and affordable. Smoking in Sweden has fallen by around two-thirds since 2008, while the EU average remains close to 24%. EU migrants who move to Sweden smoke at 7.8%, against around 24% in their home countries. That gap is evidence that policy, not culture, is doing the work.
Lesson two: one alternative is not enough
We Are Innovation commissioned an Ipsos survey of 1,000 Swedish ex-smokers. Men mostly quit with snus, but women did not: 56% of female ex-smokers use nicotine pouches, making pouches the most popular alternative among women. Pouches were also the leading choice among ex-smokers aged 18 to 34. Some 89% of all respondents said the right flavour mattered. Another 61% said it was key to quitting that alternatives cost less than cigarettes.
For New Zealand, the message is plain. Vaping has helped many people quit, but it does not suit everyone. Pouches involve no smoke, no vapour and no device, and they may reach the smokers vaping has not.
Lesson three: regulate for adults, protect young people
Sweden did not respond to pouches with a ban. Its 2022 law on tobacco-free nicotine products set an 18+ age limit, labelling requirements and controls on who may sell. It also kept flavours and adult access in shops and online. New Zealand has taken the same path with vaping, and the Lancet study found youth vaping fell after tighter youth-focused rules came in. The United States has also moved, with the FDA authorising nicotine pouches for sale in 2025.
The health dividend is why this matters. Compared with the EU average, Sweden records 36% fewer lung cancer deaths and 31% fewer cancer deaths overall. Among Swedish men, lung cancer mortality is 61% below the EU level.
“New Zealand has shown the world what bold, evidence-based policy can achieve with vaping,” says Beatriz Santos, the CCO of We Are Innovation, “Sweden shows what the last mile looks like. Nicotine pouches were a game-changer there, especially for women. A legal, adults-only framework would give the remaining 300,000 New Zealand smokers one more realistic way out, while keeping these products away from young people.”
As New Zealand considers how to reach the remaining smokers, We Are Innovation is calling on policymakers to apply the same pragmatic, risk-based approach that helped make vaping part of the country’s smokefree progress. Regulating nicotine pouches as an adults-only alternative, with clear safeguards for young people, could broaden the range of options available to smokers who have not switched to vaping and help New Zealand close the final gap to smokefree status.
ENDS
ABOUT WE ARE INNOVATION
We Are Innovation is a dynamic network of individuals and institutions who deeply believe in innovation’s power to drive progress and solve the world’s most pressing problems. With over 50 think tanks, foundations, and NGOs based worldwide, We Are Innovation represents the diverse voices of a global civil society committed to advancing human creativity, adopting new technologies, and promoting innovative solutions. Through our collaborative approach and cutting-edge expertise, we are driving global transformative change. To learn more about our work, visit us at https://www.weareinnovation.global/.
Media Release on 01 October 2026
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